[EM] (no subject)

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[EM] (no subject)

Rob Lanphier
Hi everyone,

Here's a very interesting question over on the /r/EndFPTP subreddit:

<https://www.reddit.com/r/EndFPTP/comments/k27f5c/what_do_countries_with_3rd_party_viability_have/>

Here's what /u/9d47cf1f had to ask:

> What do countries with 3rd party viability have in common?
>
> I suspect that MMP is a better predictor for 3rd party viability than other
> factors and I’m looking for a list of modern democracies by voting method &
> 3rd party viability to test that hypothesis but I’m finding that to be a
> frustratingly difficult Google search. Does anyone know where such a list
> could be found?

The question from "9d47cf1f" made it clear that those of us that have
wiki skills need to fix up these two articles:

* <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMP>
* <https://electowiki.org/wiki/MMP>

Rob
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Re: [EM] (no subject)

Kristofer Munsterhjelm-3
On 28/11/2020 14.11, Rob Lanphier wrote:

> Hi everyone,
>
> Here's a very interesting question over on the /r/EndFPTP subreddit:
>
> <https://www.reddit.com/r/EndFPTP/comments/k27f5c/what_do_countries_with_3rd_party_viability_have/>
>
> Here's what /u/9d47cf1f had to ask:
>
>> What do countries with 3rd party viability have in common?
>>
>> I suspect that MMP is a better predictor for 3rd party viability than other
>> factors and I’m looking for a list of modern democracies by voting method &
>> 3rd party viability to test that hypothesis but I’m finding that to be a
>> frustratingly difficult Google search. Does anyone know where such a list
>> could be found?
>
> The question from "9d47cf1f" made it clear that those of us that have
> wiki skills need to fix up these two articles:
>
> * <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMP>
> * <https://electowiki.org/wiki/MMP>

What he's saying seems wrong. There are lots of continental European
countries that use party list (not MMP) and have many parties. There
were also lots of parties in STV-era New York.

So I'm not sure how MMP could be a better predictor than, say, going
from single-member district Plurality to party list.
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Re: [EM] (no subject)

Bob Richard-2
The expert on the question of what determines the number of political
parties is the political scientist Matthew Shugart (  
http://fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com ). According to him, the single best
predictor is district magnitude, rather than the specific form of
proportional representation. Since STV is usually used with fewer seats
per district than list PR, it might well be associated (statistically at
least) with fewer parties. But I doubt that there is any significant
difference between MMP and party list.

I'll have to look through Shugart's books to determine whether he has
tried to quantify differences among list PR, MMP and STV. I know that he
has the data set for this analysis.

--Bob Richard

------ Original Message ------
From: "Kristofer Munsterhjelm" <[hidden email]>
To: "Rob Lanphier" <[hidden email]>;
[hidden email]
Sent: 11/29/2020 9:52:26 AM
Subject: Re: [EM] (no subject)

>On 28/11/2020 14.11, Rob Lanphier wrote:
>>  Hi everyone,
>>
>>  Here's a very interesting question over on the /r/EndFPTP subreddit:
>>
>>  <https://www.reddit.com/r/EndFPTP/comments/k27f5c/what_do_countries_with_3rd_party_viability_have/>
>>
>>  Here's what /u/9d47cf1f had to ask:
>>
>>>  What do countries with 3rd party viability have in common?
>>>
>>>  I suspect that MMP is a better predictor for 3rd party viability than other
>>>  factors and I’m looking for a list of modern democracies by voting method &
>>>  3rd party viability to test that hypothesis but I’m finding that to be a
>>>  frustratingly difficult Google search. Does anyone know where such a list
>>>  could be found?
>>
>>  The question from "9d47cf1f" made it clear that those of us that have
>>  wiki skills need to fix up these two articles:
>>
>>  * <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMP>
>>  * <https://electowiki.org/wiki/MMP>
>
>What he's saying seems wrong. There are lots of continental European
>countries that use party list (not MMP) and have many parties. There
>were also lots of parties in STV-era New York.
>
>So I'm not sure how MMP could be a better predictor than, say, going
>from single-member district Plurality to party list.
>----
>Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list info
>

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